Voters Voice their Protest to Sink the Status Quo, but at What Cost?

I get that the Trump win is due in a large part to the average American being fed up with the status quo, or 'the establishment', whatever that is. A vote for Trump was as much a protest vote against this status quo as it was a vote for Trump. In many cases disgruntled democrats expressed similar sentiments by just staying home. So American has spoken. The protest has registered. But when we count the cost, will it all be worth it?

This is not just an academic discussion. The cost is likely to be in real lives, and the payment starts today. Just like clockwork, now that the election is over and Trump solidly in place, Russian bombs have started to fall again on Aleppo. I realize that most don't care much about Syria anymore. Its a civil war that has gone on for years so there is plenty of news fatigue on that front. But the reality is this is a good example of why a Trump presidency has made the world more dangerous, not safer.

What's the connection? Trump's approach is America 1st, protectionist, with minimal involvement in international organizations and treaties. As such, things like humanitarian crises and human rights are no longer a priority. This comes as great news to authoritarian rulers such as Putin, who now see this as giving them a free hand to use whatever military force they see fit. So the sad truth is that we don't even have to wait for Trump to assume office. Given that there is now nothing standing in the way, I suspect we will see something like 10 or 20 thousand civilians die between now and Christmas in Aleppo alone. Not our concern? Well, perhaps not at the moment, but wait and see another wave of refugees heading to our shores and suddenly concern comes closer to home.

This is just one issue where the Trump approach is likely to have a counter intuitive effect. I'll sum it up here and provide some references to back this up.

Policy: Non-interference, appeasement towards Putin / Russia.
Result: increased Russian adventurism and aggression around the world, generating waves of refugees, economic instability and massive loss of life.

Policy: Banning Muslims
Result: Major recruitment tool for ISIS. By painting all Muslims with the same brush, whether moderate or extremist, this will make it much easier for ISIS to recruit more to their cause. In fact, they were thrilled to learn of a Trump win.

Policy: Protectionism - tariffs to block foreign competition
Result: Trade wars, loss of exports, loss of jobs, inflation as imported goods are now more expensive.

Policy: Threats to not pay foreign debts
Result: Drop in value of US$, further domestic inflation.

Policy: Spend more on infrastructure, reduce taxes.
Result: Drop in value of US bonds, increase in interest rates, inflation.

Policy: Climate change is a 'hoax'. Pull out of climate change agreements such as the Paris Agreement
Result: Unraveling of Paris Agreement, reduced action, increased emissions and ultimately more extreme weather, habitat loss, coastal destruction etc. Also, added barriers to any future environmental or other multilateral agreements.

Policy: Non-committal approach to NATO and other key alliances -make allies pay.
Result: Potential enemies question US resolve amid weakening and shifting alliances, and are tempted to push the envelope and see how far they can go.

Welcome to the new world disorder under Trump. I'll be the first to admit that Obama made foreign policy mistakes. However, just as Brexit signaled the decline of British influence in the world - soon to shrink to little more than England, so to does this new isolationism signal the retreat of America from the world stage. Dismantling the existing order, while an interesting experiment, will leave a large void. I only worry about who or what will end up taking its place.

 "Trump and the World: What Could Actually Go Wrong"


 "Syria conflict: Assad hopes for 'anti-terror ally' in Trump"


 "Militant Islamist groups believe Trump's rhetoric will help recruitment"